As these macroeconomic factors play out throughout 2023, each can have an effect on inflation. All rights reserved. Learn more about KPMG US Services. 645 0 obj
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Market Risk Premia Market Risk Premia Application example Market Risk Premia of international stock markets as of 31 January 2023 0.834 0.834 10.309 10.309 Austria Australia Belgium Brazil Canada Swiss China Germany Denmark Estland Spain Finnland France United Kingdom Greece Hongkong Indonesia India Italy Japan South Korea Mexico Malaysia End-to-end governance, advisory and monitorship solutions to detect, mitigate and remediate security, legal, compliance and regulatory risk. %]&8e MZ])<9Ed;IC+8:{8Zm5%aUM`L=#G=*1|-}#-owe`I"$/SFCj*jbj&pIpnEG.W*|CmgkZ*iCS#P0wW1_ngnIv!wO}CW % YX]BHK##BlXV'6e3(TZ52A)K\x'+gK Social Science Research Network. Valuation of businesses, assets and alternative investments for financial reporting, tax and other purposes. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/664734/average-market-risk-premium-selected-countries/, Average market risk premium in selected countries worldwide in 2022, Available to download in PNG, PDF, XLS format, Value of traded shares in the Middle East July 2020 by exchange, Value share of outstanding bonds by GCC country 2021, Users of various mobile payment apps in Saudi Arabia in 2020, with forecasts to 2025, Share of online financial services usage Saudi Arabia 2022, Distribution of bank liabilities in Saudi Arabia by type Q3 2022, Most popular in-store payment methods in Saudi Arabia 2020-2021, Annual number of credit card transactions in Saudi Arabia 2013-2021, per capita, Industry revenue of activities auxiliary to financial service & insurance activities in Saudi Arabia 2012-2024, Industry revenue of financial and insurance activities in Saudi Arabia 2012-2024, Industry revenue of financial service activities, except insurance & pension funding in Saudi Arabia 2012-2024, Value of outstanding bonds by GCC country 2021, Number of listed companies largest stock exchange operators globally 2022, Distribution of Islamic financial asset value worldwide in 2021, by country, Value of takaful assets worldwide 2012-2021, Distribution of global Islamic fund assets 2021, by domicile, Average market risk premium in Italy 2011-2018, Average market risk premium in the Netherlands 2011-2016, Average risk free investment rate in Belgium 2015-2022, Average risk free investment rate in the Netherlands 2015-2022, Average risk free rate in Italy 2015-2018, Average market risk premium in Mexico 2011-2016, Median market risk premium in selected countries worldwide 2022, Average market risk premium in Australia 2011-2016, Average required return to equity in Hungary 2015-2022, Average market risk premium in New Zealand 2011-2016, Average required return to equity in Turkey 2015-2022, Average required return to equity in Greece 2015-2022, Average market risk premium in Japan 2011-2016, Average required return to equity in the Netherlands 2015-2022, Average market risk premium in Canada 2011-2022, Average market risk premium in Brazil 2011-2016, Average market risk premium in the U.S. 2011-2022, Reasons for investment trust purchase in Japan 2022, Number of regulated open-end funds worldwide 2020-2022, by asset type, Find your information in our database containing over 20,000 reports. Exhibit 2 shows the fluctuations in the base U.S. cost of equity since year-end 2019 to the present, using the Duff & Phelps Recommended U.S. ERP and accompanying risk-free rate. the equity market risk premium decreases to 5.75% as per 31 December 2022. 0000003412 00000 n
Which countries have the highest premiums? With an unemployment rate of 3.4%, the U.S. jobless rate hasnt fallen this low since 1969. 1 March 2023. Learn more about how Statista can support your business. Sorry, something went wrong. Market risk premium, often referred to as equity, risk, or market premium is calculated as the difference between the expected return on a market portfolio and the risk-free . Elected to represent program in the university's Student Leadership Team. To buy a product from KPMG Atlas, you must be registered and signed in. margins or growth). 2023 Kroll, LLC. Our privacy policy describes how your data will be processed. This Markets in a Minute Chart is available as a poster. Kroll regularly reviews fluctuations in global economic and financial market conditions that warrant a periodic reassessment of the ERP and the accompanying risk-free rate. Average market risk premium in selected countries worldwide in 2022 [Graph]. Third quarter U.S. real GDP was later revised to 33.4%. 55 East 52nd Street 17 Fl
Brian Morrissey, Head of Insurance, and our insurance team have compiled a collection of KPMG's latest publications and articles which focus on developments in, and issues facing the insurance industry. The analysis applies fractional integration methods to data for the US, Germany and Japan, and for robustness purposes considers different time horizons (2, 5 and 10 years) and frequencies (monthly and weekly). Chart. Currently, you are using a shared account. The accompanying audited consolidated financial statements, related note disclosures, and other financial information contained in the management's discussion and analysis of Ne This is the fourth edition of our comparison between IFRS and Dutch GAAP. It documents the evolution of these factors from March 25, 2020 through November 30, 2020, and their corresponding impact on the ERP. The interactive dashboard is updated monthly and can be accessed anywhere and anytime. It has also altered job market conditions. South Africa is projected to see the highest jobless rate globally. See: /en/insights/publications/valuation/valuation-insights-first-quarter-2021/duff-and-phelps-recommended-us-equity-risk, https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2020-12-22/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-and-gdp, https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-year-2020-advance-estimate, https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs, https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations. Over the last two decades, unemployment has hovered around 20%. <> Kroll is a leading provider of goodwill, intangible and long-lived asset impairment testing. Leading financial centers in the Middle East and Africa 2020, Distribution of global Islamic banking assets 2021, by country, Distribution of sovereign sukuk issuance globally 2021, by country. You can only download this statistic as a Premium user. This is because the robust job market is contributing to high inflation numbers. Across many countries, the pandemic has made entrenched labor trends worse. The weighted-average equity risk premium is 14.41%. U.S. real GDP collapsed 5% and 31.4% in the first and second quarters of 2020, respectively, but it grew in real terms by an annualized 33.1% in the third quarter.1,2 In the fourth quarter, U.S. equity markets reached new all-time highs, spurred by optimism about the new COVID-19 vaccines, the expectation of continued low interest rates through at least 2023, the resolution of the U.S. presidential election, and improved business confidence. Even as the January ISM Purchasing Managers Index posted lower readings, hitting 47.4a level of 48.7 and below generally indicates a recessionfactories are not laying off many workers. Overview and forecasts on trending topics, Industry and market insights and forecasts, Key figures and rankings about companies and products, Consumer and brand insights and preferences in various industries, Detailed information about political and social topics, All key figures about countries and regions, Market forecast and expert KPIs for 600+ segments in 150+ countries, Insights on consumer attitudes and behavior worldwide, Business information on 60m+ public and private companies, Detailed information for 35,000+ online stores and marketplaces. I am passionate about mathematical and . Creating value whilst not losing sight of concrete opportunities and the financial risks, Creating values through a merger and/or acquisition. While we have tried to include all such products, we do not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of such lists. A total of 313,973 home-equity lines of credit (HELOCs) were originated on residential properties in the fourth quarter of 2022. He graduated from the Gabelli School of Business at Fordham University . Importantly, even countries headquartered in mature markets have international risks if they carry out operations in other countries. Show publisher information Equity Risk Premium Yardeni Research, Inc. March 1, 2023 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 jabbott@yardeni.com Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box. Download a tablesummarizing these recommendations over the period January 2008 present. 0000000628 00000 n
Social Science Research Network. Here are the steps Damodaran took to determine a countrys equity risk premium: Premiums will shift over time as a countrys credit rating, credit spread, and equity market volatility changes. 55 East 52nd Street 17 Fl
With easy access to capital, low interest rates, and a recovering global economy, deal makers around the world announced $5.1 trillion worth of M&A transactions in 2021, up from $3.8 trillion in 2020 and the highest level since 2015 1. But as some economies navigate a strong labor market against high inflation and hawkish monetary policy, others are facing more challenging conditions. To combat inflation, monetary policy has been shown to take over three or even four years. Kroll's team of internationally recognized transfer pricing advisors provide the technical expertise and industry experience necessary to ensure understandable, implementable and supportable results. Subscribe here to get every update, including when new charts or infographics go live: Visualizing the 200-Year History of U.S. Interest Rates, The Pyramid of Equity Returns: Almost 200 Years of U.S. Stock Performance, All S&P 500 Sectors and Industries, by Size, Visualizing the History of U.S. Inflation Over 100 Years, The Top Investment Quotes Every Investor Should Know, Visualizing the Hierarchy of Financial Needs, Asset Class Risk and Return Over the Last Decade (2010-2019), Mapped: The Growth in U.S. House Prices by State. To account for the additional risk stocks carry over bonds, multiply the credit spread by the relative equity market volatility. The KPMG Valuation Data Source does not select the appropriate settings for you, but provides extensive documentation about the different beta types which will facilitate your decision. Besides access to the tool and a personal contact, we provide you with individual parameter derivations, background research and statistical assessment of the data. Kroll Recommended U.S. Equity Risk Premium and Corresponding Risk-Free Rates to be Used in Computing Cost of Capital: January 2008 - Present, /en/insights/publications/cost-of-capital/recommended-us-equity-risk-premium-and-corresponding-risk-free-rates, /-/media/assets/images/news/featured-images/2020/mifid-ii-regime-challenges-new.jpg?extension=webp, Impact of High Inflation and Market Volatility on Cost of Capital Assumptions, Effective October 18, 2022. The best of the best: the portal for top lists & rankings: Strategy and business building for the data-driven economy: Industry-specific and extensively researched technical data (partially from exclusive partnerships). The Free Cash Flow WACC is composed of the weighted return expectations of all the investors (equity and debt investors) and the tax correction term (tax shield). Some analysts suggest that despite a bleaker economic outlook, companies are hesitant to conduct layoffs. (May 23, 2022). KPMG supports Whoppah in their growth strategy. KPMG is a global network of professional firms providing Audit, Tax & Advisory services. In addition to access to the tool, we provide you with a personal advisor as your direct contact,who will conduct the cost of capital derivation for you according to your specifications. 0 %%EOF ESG & Sustainability Building a sustainable future Integrated report 2021/2022 Navigating change, safeguarding trust News & Insights IFRS compared to Dutch GAAP: An overview That's what more than 350 U.S. business leaders told KPMG in a new year end M&A survey. However, this is a simplified approach and does not account for the fact that a companys operations may extend into other markets. Fixing supply-side dynamics, such as preventing supply shortages and improving transportation systems and infrastructure could cool inflation. Constituents include the S&P 500 Futures Excess Return Index and the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Excess Return Index. Please try again later! Are you interested in testing our business solutions? He . Please refer to the disclaimers here for more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices' relationship to such third party product offerings. Following the 8.8% global inflation rate in 2022, the IMF forecasts a 6.6% rate for 2023 and 4.3% rate for 2024 based on their most recent January 2023 update. hbbd``b`o d; $:@@+5LL S %
You receive independent access to all of the tool's functions. Increase the relevance of your organisation for now and later, A clear purpose and positive impact on the planet and its people matters like never before. Learn more about how Statista can support your business. Profit from the additional features of your individual account. The Cost of Capital Navigator is an interactive, web-based platform (subscription required) that guides finance professionals through the steps of computing cost of capital taking into account best practices and the latest theory on this topic. The index measures the spread of returns of U.S. stocks over long term government bonds. 0000005934 00000 n
Peer group-specific and 70 (sub)sector-specific beta factors. Use Ask Statista Research Service, finance and economics professors, analysts and managers. In, Social Science Research Network. Matthew has been wearing many hats in quantitative finance, consulting, and data science. Sign up to receive periodic news, reports, and invitations from Kroll. Subjects include Financial Accounting, Quantitative Methods, Economics, Financial Markets , Excel, Management Control Systems, Advanced Finance, Competitive Strategy, Corporate Finance Knowing the Market and the Consumer, Marketing, Organisational Behaviour, Operations and Supply Chain Management, Marketing Strategy . With the KPMG Valuation Data Source, you can calculate both types of WACC. I have over 7 years working experience in auditing, finance and accounting in the following industries: consultancy, retail, public sector, insurance and Financial technology. New York NY 10055. The resulting value is the country equity risk premium. discount rate, in practice the estimated discount e e Ke = Rf + (RPm + RPi) + RPs + CRP + RPz (based on the Build-up approach) (based on the CAPM approach) Rf = risk-free rate, RPm = market premium, RPi = industry premium, RPs = size premium, CRP = country risk premium, RPz = company specic risk and = beta K = cost of equity, Kd = after tax cost of debt, W and Wd = proportion of equity . Currently, you are using a shared account. to incorporate the statistic into your presentation at any time. Chart. ", Leading financial centers in the Middle East and Africa 2020, Distribution of global Islamic banking assets 2021, by country, Distribution of sovereign sukuk issuance globally 2021, by country. Sources Business Solutions including all features. May 23, 2022. You need at least a Starter Account to use this feature. 5780 0 obj 656 0 obj
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In Europe, Bosnia and Herzegovina is estimated to see the highest unemployment rate, at over 17%. Then you can access your favorite statistics via the star in the header. Like the U.S., many advanced countries are witnessing labor market strength, especially in the United Kingdom, Asia, and Europe, although how long it will last is unknown. The type of beta appropriate for the derivation of your individual costs of capital depends on the characteristics of your company. ", Social Science Research Network, Average market risk premium in the United States from 2011 to 2022 Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/664840/average-market-risk-premium-usa/ (last visited March 05, 2023), Average market risk premium in the United States from 2011 to 2022 [Graph], Social Science Research Network, May 23, 2022. Corporate income tax rates are based on the KPMG tax survey. Kroll is not affiliated with Kroll Bond Rating Agency, While the above countries fight to sustain their purchasing power, some parts of the world are expected to continue faring exceptionally well against the backdrop of a widespread cost-of-living crisis. Goldman Sachs & Co. Dec 2008 - May 20112 years 6 months. In contrast, the Total Cash Flow WACC does not account for the tax shield. To use individual functions (e.g., mark statistics as favourites, set In exchange for taking on the additional risk, investors demand a higher return potential, known as an equity risk premium. One of these key parameters is the equity market risk premium used to estimate the equity financing cost for discounted cash flow analysis. 2023 Kroll, LLC. Something went wrong. Duff & Phelps continuously monitors global economic and financial market conditions that may indicate a change in the indicated ERP and will update our guidance as frequently as warranted. 2023KPMG N.V., a Dutch limited liability company and member of the worldwide KPMG organization of independent companies affiliated to KPMG International Limited, a UK limited by guarantee company. You can only download this statistic as a Premium user. Discover more about S&P Globals offerings, S&P U.S. Equity Risk Premium Index (USD) Factsheet, Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares. This statistic is not included in your account. This statistic is not included in your account. The good news is that inflation can potentially be tamed by other means. Financial statement audits give assurance over information used by investors. The average required return on equity used for the U.S. is 7.3%, according to "Market Risk Premium and Risk-Free Rate Used for 88 Countries in 2021," the latest research from Pablo Fernandez, Sofia Bauls, and Pablo Fernandez Acin. Advisory works with the worlds leading organizations to create and protect the sustainable value of their business. %PDF-1.7
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This paper contains the statistics of a May 2021 survey about the risk-free rate (RF) and the market risk premium (MRP). Equity Market Risk Premium Research Summary 24 January 2018 2018 KPMG Advisory N., registered with the trade register in the Netherlands under number 33263682, is a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative a Swiss entity. See: https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-year-2020-advance-estimate. In the mid-range, emerging countries such as Brazil, South Africa, and India carry moderate risk. As a Premium user you get access to background information and details about the release of this statistic. Unemployment is forecast to tick higher in 2023, but so far red-hot labor markets are resisting this trend on a global scale. Credit spreads are estimated based on a companys individual rating on a given date. Show publisher information Directly accessible data for 170 industries from 50 countries and over 1 million facts: Get quick analyses with our professional research service. %PDF-1.6
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Historical recommendations: Kroll Increases U.S. Normalized Risk-Free Rate from 3.0% to 3.5%, but Spot 20-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Preferred When Higher, Kroll U.S. Normalized Risk-free Rate Increased from 2.5% to 3.0%, Effective April 7, 2022, Duff & Phelps Recommended U.S. Equity Risk Premium Decreased from 6.0% to 5.5%, Effective December 9, 2020, Duff & Phelps U.S. Normalized Risk-Free Rate Lowered from 3.0% to 2.5%, Effective June 30, 2020, Duff & Phelps Recommended U.S. Equity Risk Premium Increased from 5.0% to 6.0% Effective March 25, 2020, Duff & Phelps U.S. Equity Risk Premium Recommendation Decreases from 5.5% to 5.0%, Effective December 19, 2019, Duff & Phelps Decreases U.S. Normalized Risk-Free Rate from 3.5% to 3.0%, Effective September 30, 2019, Duff & Phelps Increases Recommended U.S. Equity Risk Premium from 5.0% to 5.5%, effective December 19, 2018, Duff & Phelps U.S. Equity Risk Premium Recommendation Decreases from 5.5% to 5.0%, Effective September 5, 2017, Duff & Phelps Decreases U.S. Normalized Risk-Free Rate from 4.0% to 3.5%, Effective November 15, 2016, Duff & Phelps Increases Recommended U.S. Equity Risk Premium from 5.0% to 5.5%, Effective January 31, 2016, Brexit: The Impact on Cost of Capital (September 14, 2016), Duff & Phelps Decreases U.S. Equity Risk Premium Recommendation to 5.0%, Effective February 28, 2013, Duff & Phelps Decreased Its Recommended U.S. Equity Risk Premium to 5.5% Effective January 15, 2012. While Venezuela battles hyperinflation, Yemen is suffering from a humanitarian crisis and Sudan has high perceived corruption. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/664840/average-market-risk-premium-usa/, Average market risk premium in the United States from 2011 to 2022, Available to download in PNG, PDF, XLS format, Value of traded shares in the Middle East July 2020 by exchange, Value share of outstanding bonds by GCC country 2021, Users of various mobile payment apps in Saudi Arabia in 2020, with forecasts to 2025, Share of online financial services usage Saudi Arabia 2022, Distribution of bank liabilities in Saudi Arabia by type Q3 2022, Most popular in-store payment methods in Saudi Arabia 2020-2021, Annual number of credit card transactions in Saudi Arabia 2013-2021, per capita, Industry revenue of activities auxiliary to financial service & insurance activities in Saudi Arabia 2012-2024, Industry revenue of financial and insurance activities in Saudi Arabia 2012-2024, Industry revenue of financial service activities, except insurance & pension funding in Saudi Arabia 2012-2024, Value of outstanding bonds by GCC country 2021, Number of listed companies largest stock exchange operators globally 2022, Distribution of Islamic financial asset value worldwide in 2021, by country, Value of takaful assets worldwide 2012-2021, Distribution of global Islamic fund assets 2021, by domicile, Average market risk premium in New Zealand 2011-2016, Average market risk premium in Australia 2011-2016, Average market risk premium in Mexico 2011-2016, Median market risk premium in selected countries worldwide 2022, Average market risk premium in Russia 2011-2022, Average market risk premium in Brazil 2011-2016, Average market risk premium in Canada 2011-2022, Average market risk premium in Japan 2011-2016, Average market risk premium in Italy 2011-2018, Average market risk premium in the Netherlands 2011-2016, Average market risk premium in selected countries worldwide 2022, Average risk free investment rate in Belgium 2015-2022, Average risk free investment rate in the Netherlands 2015-2022, Average risk free rate in Italy 2015-2018, Average required return to equity in the Netherlands 2015-2022, Average required return to equity in Turkey 2015-2022, Average required return to equity in Greece 2015-2022, Value of M&A deals in Russia 2020, by type and industry, Climate bonds issuance Philippines 2020, by issuer, Find your information in our database containing over 20,000 reports. So far, this year is no different. This research bulletin prepared by the Dutch Valuations practice summarises our observations regarding the key factors influencing the equity market risk premium since the onset of the financial crisis. Given email address is already subscribed, thank you! W.(?Q3|3sv J@?Erv=^FD8_r"m5%R tp@" zI c]j=3j.#DQK[rlEPF#=]Rs#cAGEZN9;Np)#s 0000002412 00000 n
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The premiums are based on a study by a New York University researcher, Aswath Damodaran. For the optimists, the good news is that the double-digit inflation that characterized nearly half the world in 2022 is expected to be less prevalent this year. Unlike some declining economic indicators mentioned above, the job market is one of the strongest areas of the global economy. Participants representing 89 registered investment company fund groups completed it. The cut-off dates range from 2011 to the present. Advisory and technology solutions, including policies and procedures, screening and due diligence, disclosures and reporting and investigations, value creation, and monitoring. Expert provider of complex administrative solutions for capital events globally. KPMG Valuation Data Source aggregates all key cost of capital parameters - including beta factor and credit spread. The KPMG Valuation Data Sources unlevered betas rely on conceptual frameworks which need to be chosen by the user (raw vs. adjusted levered beta, certain vs. uncertain tax shields, application or non-application of debt-beta, different regression periods). The interactive dashboard is updated monthly and can be accessed anywhere and anytime. }E Gs/FMRQvya|^yUzWn0jnBP9
Investors generally expect to see a higher return from investments that involve a greater level of risk - investing in stocks is riskier than putting your money into an ultra-low risk . Average market risk premium in the United States from 2011 to 2022 [Graph]. Based on that rating, determine the credit spread, which is the additional yield over a risk-free investment. While rising food and energy prices accounted for much of the inflation we saw in 2022, the IMFs World Economic Outlook highlights that core inflation, which excludes food, energy, transport and housing prices, is now also a major driving factor in high inflation rates around the world. According to the source, the report is presenting required market risk premium (or equity premium) defined as: "incremental return of a diversified portfolio (the market) over the. Given its importance, it is surprising how haphazard the estimation of equity risk premiums remains in . Constituents include the S&P 500 Futures Excess Return Index and the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Futures Excess Return Index. One marker is the Conference Boards Leading Economic Index, which fell for its tenth straight month in December. The inflation differential is calculated by us, based on inflation estimates provided by Economist Intelligence Unit. Summary of our observations of the key factors influencing the equity market risk premium. 3.53% credit spread x 1.25 relative equity market volatility. See: https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2020-12-22/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-and-gdp. KPMG in the US. Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents Business Solutions including all features. Insurance Insights February 2023. You only have access to basic statistics. This paper provides evidence on the degree of persistence of one of the key components of the CAPM, namely the market risk premium, as well as its volatility. Please try again later! . As soon as this statistic is updated, you will immediately be notified via e-mail. Profit from the additional features of your individual account. As investors closely watch economic data, rising unemployment could come on the heels of higher interest rates, but so far this has yet to unravel. 5Source: FDAs Emergency Use Authorization information available at: https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs. Our services include claims and noticing administration, debt restructuring and liability management services, agency and trustee services and more. Additionally, the Nordic M&A activity is continuously high with the TMT sector outperforming other sectors based on deal count in Q1 2021. Alternatively, investors can calculate a weighted-average premium based on the location of a companys revenue or production. How can investors determine the equity risk premiums for individual companies? Accessed March 05, 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/664840/average-market-risk-premium-usa/, Social Science Research Network. 665 0 obj
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[Online]. Venezuela, Sudan, and Yemen are tied for the highest equity risk premium. If you are an admin, please authenticate by logging in again. 4. To guarantee full flexibility in setting parameters and calculations, users can access the data calculated by KPMG at any time or incorporate their own values into the cost of capital derivation.
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