Investors are lucky to have several viable exit strategies at their disposal. Realtor.com is forecasting 2022 home sales to jump 6.6% year-over-year and hit their highest level in 16 years. More specifically, the median home value in the United States is $337,560 (13.7% more than Albuquerque). Rehabbing and flipping still offer attractive profit margins, but rental properties look more conducive to a successful business model in todays environment. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience. The minutes from the December FOMC meeting stated that participants judged that "changes in the target range for the federal funds rate should be the Committees primary means for adjusting the stance of monetary policy" as "there is less uncertainty about the effects of changes in the federal funds rate on the economy than about the effects of changes in the Federal Reserves balance sheet." In part, migration patterns evident pre-COVID were accelerated. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". By December, just 950 homes were on the market, compared to 1,901 a year earlier. Slightly over 30% of their active listings have had a price reduction and housing values have decreased 3.43% in August 2022. Mon Dec 05 2022. Data sources for charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency, U-Haul, Core Logic, MRS Securitization Disclosure Data, Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae ESR Analysis. In March 2020, Nob Hill mainstay Zinc Wine Bar & Bistro closed due to the, The donut shop has announced it has closed its South Valley and Northeast Heights locations., Declaration began March 11, 2020, and NM is one of five states that still have. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Meanwhile, if we look at it in the past, from 2000 to 2010, the population of the metropolitan area increased by 21%. Demand in the Albuquerque real estate market appears to be undergoing a shift from single-family homes towards condominiums. Theres more land to build (on), theres newer construction, she said. This is less than last month's market action index of 44. As a result, more people are being forced to rent. Additionally, the median home value in the United States looks as if it is going to appreciate at a faster rate moving forward. Yes. Your entry-level buyer who has no equity and no home to sell and (who) has to cobble together every dollar for a down payment, that jump in the interest rate is going to really hurt them because they can afford less per month now, Kiegel said. Todays Albuquerque real estate market trends directly correlate to the pandemic and the resulting economy. By clicking Accept, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies. In February, about 540 homes were available on the market which was, at the time, a record low, according to GAAR. In particular, 2022 purchase volumes are now expected to be $2 trillion, an upward revision of $17 billion from last month's forecast. While it is too early to be certain that the COVID era is nearing its end, we expect the story of 2022 to be one of transition for both the economy and the housing market. The Albuquerque market, not unlike the rest of the country, experienced a setback in the wake of COVID-19. Rather, we expect the narrative around housing this year to shift from one of extremely limited inventories leading to hypercompetitive bidding wars to one in which increasingly more would-be homebuyers are priced out of the market. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. He was so cute and so, so excited. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% to Universal Hydrogens test plane takes flight. This should help alleviate some of the supply pressure in the currently tight housing market as both rental and existing ownership units are vacated for these new units. As a result, the Albuquerque real estate investing community has turned to rental properties. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors. The lack of supply has simultaneously increased prices and decreased the number of days homes are on the market. Based on data published by Redfin, the housing market in Albuquerque in 2022 is not too competitive. The impacts are more likely to be felt in the supply side of the economy due to the sheer volume of cases, leading to a heightened number of workers calling out sick or needing to quarantine. I need to call him a young man. It also grows at 0.16% annually and the population has developed by 3.00% in the last 10 years. So Freddie Mac does a quarterly forecast where they look into Freddie Mac, you know, as one of the the, the big government sponsored mortgage funds basically. Maam. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously. Aside from houses, some other properties sold in the same period are 180 condominiums, a townhouse, and 48 units of multi-family houses. Thomas says buying her home wasnt easy. Unless we get a mass exodus of people out of Albuquerque, we just dont have enough housing, Venturi said. Especially if they come from bigger cities. Earlier this year, interest rates and they vary from lender to lender on average were in the 3% and 4% range, according to Luke Ham, branch manager for VanDyk Mortgage in Albuquerque. The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". All Albuquerque New Mexico Area Homes 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. By 2020, Bishop said the market was about 10,000 units behind where it should be, and the problem was exacerbated by increased lumber and transportation costs associated with the pandemic. You can call him kid, you know, I dont know what age can you start calling? But that rise in interest rates can also lead to hundreds more dollars on mortgage payments, said Kiegel. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. At todays levels, the median home value is under the national average. However, new listings in Albuquerque are down 13.2% year-over-year, according to the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors. February foreclosure activity looks a lot like what we can expect to see for at least the next six months double digit month-over-month growth, and triple-digit year-over-year increases, said Rick Sharga, executive vice president at RealtyTrac, an ATTOM company. In terms of the population growth, Albuquerque is indeed left behind by other big cities in the country. Across the U.S., home inventory stood at about 950,000 a decrease of 9.5% year-over-year and the median sales price stood at about $375,300, which is an increase of 15% from March 2021. I dont like the word crisis,' Venturi said. Albuquerque Real Estate Market 2022 Overview, Albuquerque Real Estate Market Trends 2022. Our housing forecast has also been minimally changed; we expect total home sales to fall 1.2 percent in 2022 (from -1.4 percent last month), followed by a decline of 3.6 percent in 2023 (previously -3.8 percent). At the time (around the first quarter of 2012), home values had been suppressed for far too long, and foreclosures ran rampant, which created a surplus of distressed homes with extremely attractive profit margins. Even in the list of 75 most populated cities in the country, the city is considered one of the least expensive to live in. Lower interest rates allow investors to offset high prices and increase monthly cash flow. Right. But anyway, its, its good to see that theyre doing that because not only does that help that person, it actually helps stimulate the economy. WebInteresting. While its too soon to tell, competition in the single-family market may have driven more buyers to seek out attached condominiums. The long-run lack of housing supply would suggest some stability for investor demand, but much of this activity is potentially "hot" money taking an outsized interest in residential real estate due to low-yielding alternative investments and the current low-cost of leverage. San Diego saw prices increase 10.4% in December year-over-year, while Phoenix led the way with 13.7% growth, according to the report. The company flew its test plane for 15 minutes at low elevation above the Grant County International Airport in Moses Lake, Washington, where it ABQ sees second-best month for recreational cannabis sales. The buying prices for properties are low while the renting prices are higher. Our forecast process is such that the interest rate projection was completed at the end of December, prior to the most recent increases in the 10-year Treasury rate (1.72 percent as of this writing, up from 1.52 percent on December 31). Pittsburgh Real Estate Market: House Prices & Trends, Dallas Real Estate Market: House Prices & Trends, Baltimore Real Estate Market: House Prices, Trends & Stats. The pandemic has impacted current trends and will continue to influence forecasts moving forward. Those locations have many factors to make properties more valuable. Investor Trends: Albuquerque real estate investors, like homebuyers, will hurry to take advantage of relatively low interest rates before they get too high. So thank you. I dont think theres really one area thats the hot spot, Vigil said. And youre seeing multiple offers out there and buyers paying, you know, $20,000, $30,000 up to $100,000 (over asking price)., Local experts say that trend, in part, has come from workers relocating to New Mexico with large amounts of cash on hand. The average price forAlbuquerque homes for saleis $327,000, increasing from the average price in 2021 at 21.1%. The problem, however, has been that supply chain disruptions and ongoing labor scarcity issues are delaying many projects from being completed. Recent inflation data has likewise been in line with our prior forecast, so related adjustments have also been modest. At that level, listings are down 40.8% year over year. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. Even those who can afford to buy a house in Albuquerque are having a hard time beating out the competition. Albuquerque Area MLS Map and MLS Areas List. In the mid of 2022, the details of the Albuquerque Real Estate Market are as follows. However, there is significant historical variation around this simple relationship stemming from the drivers of such rate changes. Were going to be ahead of that this year. Undeniably, in the USA, there are many places considered the best for real estate and property investments. While most primary cities lost residents to work-from-home trends, Albuquerques affordability appears to have attracted buyers in search of more affordable living arrangements. So theyre saying home prices in 2021 across the States are expected to average 6.6% up. According to The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors, between May 2021 and May 2022, the median listing home price in the metro increased by more than The increase results from too few homes supplying buyers who are trying to take advantage of low interest rates and years of savings. I mean, hes 24. And they know theres a lot of bills floating around, out there in the house. Its its exciting. In the last year, demand has caused rental rates to increase 16.4%. At the current mortgage rate of 3.22 percent, we estimate that about 32 percent of outstanding mortgage balances have at least a 50-basis point incentive to refinance. Third, many people prefer renting a house or an apartment unit in Albuquerque instead of buying. In the early months of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve took a number of actions designed to spur economic activity, including lowering the key interest rate. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. Interesting. Kimberly Kiegel, a real estate agent based in Albuquerque with eXp Realty, said new home builds arent always affordable for home buyers considering contractors are pricing new homes higher to match the rising costs of supplies to make it worth it for them. I mean, young man, it was, it was really fun. Yeah. Their additional three locations remain open. Besides, there are more methods conducted by investors to analyze the property market trend in the US. For a snapshot of macroeconomic and housing data between the monthly forecasts, please read ESRs Economic and Housing Weekly Notes. We are getting a fair amount of people coming in here because of our affordability, Venturi said. In the meantime, competition is expected to remain high. And weve heard a lot of this over the over COVID right. Click here to stay informed with the Santa Fe market! As the post-COVID housing market reveals itself, we anticipate the following themes to emerge over the year, as well as answers to some large unknowns: Affordability will increasingly limit home sales: This isn't to say that we expect a soft year for home sales in absolute terms. But, but for the most part, its, its East and Midwest markets, not the South and the Southwest where we are, everybody in the South and the Southwest is, is booming one way or another. And I know listeners to the Kiva probably pay attention to politics a lot. Over the course of the pandemic, real estate in Albuquerque has appreciated an average of 36.7%. And theyre saying, theyre going to keep going up in 2022. Program has been released. Home price growth will remain strong but decelerate: We expect the effects of worsening affordability to lead to a drag on home price growth. The share of panelists who believe their long-term outlook might be too optimistic jumped up to 67% from 56% last quarter. And its, its the really high price markets where thats really bad. Thus, it makes Albuquerque the 59th biggest metropolitan area in the country. According to The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors, between May 2021 and May 2022, the median listing home price in the metro increased by more than 17%. You know, as long as theyre, you know, saving like $50 a month, theres some qualifications, they have to have a decent credit score. Some people are participating in recovery. And you know, you think about this, a builder is paying a hundred thousand dollars before they do anything on that piece of land. About the Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey, About the Refinance Application-Level Index, January 2022 Multifamily Market Commentary, Emergence of 'New Normal' Housing Market Begins, Mark Palim, VP and Deputy Chief Economist. So anyway, its interesting that, that this is that theyre doing it, that theyre offering a $15 Valor credit right now. Since that time, however, home prices have increased for ten consecutive years. We estimate that purchase volumes under such case could be about 2 percent, or $33 billion lower in 2022, all else equal, and that refinance volumes could be about 10 to 15 percent lower in 2022. Mackenzie Bishop, co-owner of Abrazo Homes and president of the Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico, said Albuquerque has chronically underbuilt housing for about a decade coming out of the recession. Nationwide, home prices increased by 9.2% year-over-year in December, according to a monthly report from the national data and analytics firm CoreLogic. Another 24% predicted that the housing market shift would come in 2024. At that time, real estate in Albuquerque boasted a median home value of $170,000. Duein large partto the previously mentioned supply and demand constraints caused by the pandemic, prices proceeded to increase nearly forty percent to get to where they are today. At their current rate, mortgage rates will save todays buyers thousands of dollars, and real estate investors will be able to pad their bottom line with more cash flow. Our 2023 forecast is essentially unchanged from last month at $1.1 trillion, as the impact from stronger home prices and higher interest rates are projected to offset each other. Unprecedented market and policy responses stemming from the pandemic will gradually be replaced by more typical pre-COVID economic and housing patterns. The population is approximately 558,000 and theAlbuquerque metro populationis 903,000. While just 8% expect that to happen by sometime in 2026 or sometime in the next five years. Our forecast for purchase mortgage origination volumes for 2021 was revised downward slightly based on incoming data. They forecast any possibilities ofAlbuquerque houses for saleand rent. Amen to that. Rental properties will be the most viable investment strategy: Increases in home prices have made it harder to flip real estate in Albuquerque. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. However, if inflation pressures remain robust, the Fed may feel compelled to act more aggressively. For context, the median home value in the United States has increased 33.9% over the same period. Griffin has seen buyers from California, who she says are pricing New Mexicans out., They absolutely do affect our market, Kiegel said. I appreciate hearing about it. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Supply trends are expected to continue; that is to say that demand will greatly outweigh inventory. Simply put, too many important market indicators are pointing towards becoming a buy-and-hold investor to ignore, not the least of which include: With a metropolitan population somewhere in the neighborhood of 942,000, Albuquerque has seen its population grow a modest 1.4% year over year. In fact, theres a good chance price will continue rising until more inventory is brought to the market, perhaps as much as 15.6%. I mean, we, we have to get all those 20 somethings into their first house. Albuquerque currently has a relatively high unemployment rate. What are the pros? But professional investors, of course, will do more than just keep the land without doing anything. 1119 Alameda Blvd NW Albuquerque, NM 87114. That really is a satisfying part of what we do for sure. But the Federal Reserve raised the key interest rate last month to address rising prices for consumers, which has also translated to an increase in interest rates for home mortgages a sign of hopefully slowing down the hot market, Bank of Albuquerque vice president David Garcia said. Yes, yes. Register for our FREE Real Estate Webinar and get started learning how to start a successful investment business today! The low inventory has created bidding wars among prospective buyers, with some paying as much as $100,000 over listing price, experts say. Albuquerque is a great city for investors, of course, although you cannot say that it is the best one. When they sell it in the future, the profits are on their hands whether they are big or small. With local home prices increasing at such a fast pace, some neighborhoods have taken the momentum and run with it. It says, basically you have to save at least $50 a month in your mortgage payment, by refinancing to qualify along with a few other things, you said $50 a month. The durability of changes in work, schooling, and housing arrangements is yet to be seen. Indeed, some other cities in New Mexico overshadow Albuquerque; Santa Fe, Clovis, and Roswell. The latest real estate investing content delivered straight to your inbox. One of them is WalletInvestor.com which suggests investors invest in properties in Albuquerque for a longer-term. Our next forecast will of course incorporate formally any recent interest rate changes. This week the median list price for Santa Fe, NM 87508 is $762,500 with the market action index hovering around 42. However, based on the trajectory of cases abroad in some of the early outbreak areas such as South Africa and parts of Europe, we expect the U.S. wave to begin to pass in the coming weeks. We are assuming in the near term that the Omicron COVID-19 surge will have only modest and temporary economic impacts. I mean, Ill, Im going to say this right now in April of 2021, that we are going to see probably double Im going to Im not going to say probably were going to see double digit home price growth for 2021. The unemployment rate is now below 4 percent, and the Federal Reserve is poised to begin policy tightening (we now expect the first rate hike to occur in March). Here they are. Interest Rate Trends: The Federal Reserve has been forced to increase interest rates to fight inflation, and mortgage rates have suffered. Currently, the Maxwell Museum is displaying 'Conversing with the Land: Native North American Baskets of the Maxwell Museum Collections,' through Jan. 10, 2024. I dont think any of us could have predicted this last year in any way, shape or form, said GAAR president Belinda Franco. 24 years old first house. Condominiums are selling nearly twice as fast as their single-family counterparts. Their additional three locations remain open. Bishop said he expects the inventory of new homes to remain chronically low for another 12 to 18 months. Rental Trends: The same supply trends increasing prices have also forced many buyers out of the market. 13% expect the market to favor home buyers in 2025. And they always look and like, kind of give a forecast whats going on and what theyre saying for, you know, right now were somewhere around 3.1, 3.2% interest rates that, you know, it fluctuates obviously, but theyre saying through 2021, its going to stay pretty close to here in the low mid to low, to mid, to low threes. The average price of houses in Albuquerque is quite affordable. According to the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors report on annual market statistics, the average sale price of a single-family home in the metro area in 2020 increased by 10.7% compared to 2019 the largest single-year jump in the metro area since 2006. Inventory will likely still be a challenge, with only 0.3% Yeah. For all these reasons and more, home prices exploded in Albuquerque and across the state. In March of 2021, when the pandemic was officially declared a global emergency, the median home value in Albuquerque was about $217,000. And then the engineering and, you know, everything, you know. Still, Venturi acknowledged that the pandemic exacerbated some of these trends. However, if interest rates are readjusting due to new expectations over long-run inflation or a shift in monetary policy, then the effect could be larger. He published a monthly housing price index to measure the change in property prices in the US. In fact, rehabbing and real estate flipping remained the preferred exit strategy for local real estate investors for a decade. Are COVID-related shifts in housing over? Im quoting Freddie Mac. I havent looked at it. Home prices didnt have the same type of run-up as many of todays hottest markets, but demand persisted. The average listing price of houses to sell in the city is $325,000. Theyre even saying for 2022, theyre saying 3.7. As well. Albuquerque is a city located in the area of Bernalillo County in New Mexico. The decline in listings further exacerbates the already existing inventory crisis, making it harder for residents to buy and increasing the demand for rental properties. If for nothing else, local home values bottomed out around the first quarter of 2012, when The Great Recession was starting to show signs of ending. Redfin reported that for the first time in six months, homebuyer competition dropped slightly in March of 2022. While inflation is expected to remain elevated, home sales and house price growth will slow to a more sustainable pace. Inflation, which has increasingly affected Americans, has played a part in increasing home prices, along with the low inventory and historically low interest rates for mortgages. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously. We now project 7.6 percent and 3.3 percent house priced growth for 2022 and 2023, respectively, as measured by the FHFA Purchase-Only Index. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Thats not a pending that one exists. All information presented should be independently verified. Its just a bill. Among the other figures from GAAR's February 2021 Albuquerque residential market report when compared to the previous year: Days on the market decreased At a national level, this means we expect to see continued home sales growth in 2022 of 6.6% which will mean 16-year highs for sales nationwide and in many metro On the other hand, the most affordable location is the area not far from the North Valley, with an average price of $190,000. Moving forward, Albuquerque real estate market appreciation is expected to reach upwards of 15.6%. There are actually markets where prices are down. The average prices of houses in those areas are fluctuating from year to year but the trend shows they are gradually increasing. Heres what. Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. As of April, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan was 4.72%, according to Freddie Mac. The data show that the median home listing price in Albuquerque is $324,000 in April 2022. I think were going to see more of the same in 2021, Franco said. After that point, he said hes hopeful demand will slow down and allow builders to catch up. Yeah. The most expensive one is High Desert with an average price of $612,000. What do they call it? Elsewhere in the state, Vigil said he was interested to see how recent federal restrictions on the oil and gas industry would impact real estate in Lea and Eddy counties, where a particularly tight housing market forced oil workers into RVs and temporary man camps while the oil and gas industry boomed. So, make sure to read this passage until the end. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Rates are now higher than they have been in years, and they will continue to increase throughout 2022. It happens. Additionally, the minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed participants raising the possibility of not simply tapering asset purchases, as is currently outlined, but an outright shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet, potentially not too long after the first interest rate hike. Supply and demand constraints have directed the Albuquerque housing market for about 24 months and created the following trends: Supply Trends: The Albuquerque real estate market had about 523 single-family detached homes for sale at the end of the first quarter. Well, theres a couple of news releases. The report looks backward at the period of December 2000 or more than 20 years ago. Dating back more than two decades, in fact, the following neighborhoods in Albuquerque have appreciated the most: The Lofts At 610 Central SW / Silver Platinum. https://www.zillow.com/research/data/ Total sales in February stood at $27.7 million, says Cannabis Control Division data shows. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. According to ATTOM Data Solutions February 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, a total of 25,833 U.S. properties received a foreclosure filing (default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions) over the course of February. And he was like, yes, maam with all the closing documents, when the title officer would say, and this ones about, and hed go, yes. If theres a general theme its just a shortage of supply, Bishop said. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads. Well see if it happens. I do see 2021 as being a good year, Bishop said. According to a February 2022 report from the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors, the average home price stood at $367,566. Albuquerque real estate agent Tego Venturi said many of the conditions for strong growth were in place before the COVID-19 pandemic reached New Mexico in March. Whereas single-family homes are spending about 17 days on the market until they are sold, condominiums last a mere nine days. The data are collected to analyze if the trend is just the same. Based on a slightly higher interest rate expectation, which outweighs the more optimistic home price growth forecast, we have revised downward our forecast for 2022 refi volumes by $25 billion to $1.3 trillion. The change in house price in 5 years was 56.9% while the monthly change in the same period was 1.4%. The same profit margins investors once found readily available are growing harder to find. But experts say that the Albuquerque area market may remain tight with the low inventory of homes. Can I get back to this story now? Mortgage rates now stand at about 5% and may continue to climb. Its a supply and demand issue, said Sarah Griffin, an Albuquerque-based real estate agent with Keller Williams Realty.